Friday, February 15, 2013

From 2011 to 2013

This is what I wrote in February 2011.



"I am terrified that when all the ashes from the uprisings that are consuming us settle down we become blinded by the celebratory mood and find ourselves having exchanged one agenda for another whose nature would be like an octopus: soft but with many slippery tentacles.This is not me being a conspiracy theorist, but those familiar with my writing know that I am a big fan of the Realism school in international relations where national interest and security reign king probably with large dollops of personal interest ( that's my addition to the theory :P ).
I don't want to dampen anyone's euphoria but I'm afraid that we will rush in where angels fear to thread. Everybody is feverishly planning and we should not be caught unaware. So to all those involved in state building or re-building; can you please watch out for the wolves in lamb clothes." [source]

 What do you think ? how does it look with hindsight?

5 comments:

kineeni said...

Highlander, I agree because being an opponent (the new politicians) of the former dictator doesn't necessarily make them leadership material. And the ashes are still smouldering

programmer craig said...

Seems like you could have written it today :)

Mitchell said...

I'm taking a moment to try to understand the current Libyan situation, and not succeeding... I see that you have a Berber president now, and maybe that's symbolically important... but the main thing seems to be the ongoing disorder - prison breaks, bombings... I was also wondering who the main external power in Libya is now, maybe it's France?...

I also tried to understand Libya in its context - look for meanings and clues that way... I've noticed that Algeria seems to be the lone stable state among the North African republics, and their attitude is somehow "we went through this already, years ago". While in Egypt they go from one extreme to another, it wouldn't surprise me to see Morsi restored one day... Unlike those two, Libya is an oil-producing state, which gives it a specific place in the world's strategic calculus... My intuition is, that Libya ought to be able to recover and become a more peaceful place, maybe a few years from now? Iraq and Syria have the sectarian divisions to create constant problems; Libya has the regions, but that's just about everyone getting a piece of the national wealth, so surely negotiation can win...

Disclaimer: I actually know almost nothing about Libya, I am being ridiculous in trying to guess where the country is headed.

Mitchell said...

OK, so much for my previous comment about Libya being stable now!

Mitchell said...

So much for my previous comment about Libya being stable now!